Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures continued to breakdown in yesterday’s trade after failing against resistance last week, putting prices nearly 20 cents off last week’s high and now about 20 cents off the contract low that was posted on February 26th. Today’s report could have some big implications on prices through the spring, so manage your risk accordingly. On top of that, the markets are closed tomorrow which makes today the last trading day of the month and quarter, which could also play a role in price action. At the very least, the Bulls will want to see a close back above our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*

Pivot: 431 1/2-435

Support: 421-422***

Fundamental Notes

• The range of intended corn acres comes in from 90.0-93.472 million acres, with the average estimate being near 91.8 million acres.
• Quarterly stocks estimates range from 8.129-8.568 billion bushels with the average estimate being 8.427. This would be 14% higher year over year and a 5-year high for this time of year.
• Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.

Fund Positioning

• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 13k futures/options contracts, the bulk of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 242,988 contracts. Broken down that is 171,123 longs VS 414,111 shorts.

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

• Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet.

Continue Reading the full report at https://bluelinefutures.com/2024/03/28/traders-await-new-news-from-todays-all-important-usda-report/

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