The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 58.21 (-2.21) [-3.66%], high of 60.43, low of 57.91. Cash price is 60.48 (-1.57). Open interest for CLM25 is 290,180. CLM25 settled below its 5 day (61.31), below its 20 day (62.19), below its 50 day (65.74), below its 100 day (68.20), below its 200 day (68.81) and below its year-to date (68.14) moving averages. 

The July Brent Crude (QAN25) contract settled at 61.06 (-2.22) [-3.51%], high of 63.32, low of 60.76. Cash price is 64.30 (-1.55). QAN25 settled below its 5 day (64.13), below its 20 day (65.20), below its 50 day (68.82), below its 100 day (71.29), below its 200 day (72.41) and below its year-to-date (71.18) moving averages.

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now

Today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration data for the week ending April 4, showed US crude oil inventories had a draw of -2.7 million barrels from the previous week, a large discrepancy from the API’s forecast of a +3.76 mb build. Total US crude oil inventories stand at 440.4 million barrels, seasonally about 6% lower than the seasonal five-year average. Gasoline inventories had a draw of 4 million barrels. Distalties increased by 900,000 barrels.  US oil imports declined by 90,000 barrels per day, averaging 5.5 million bpd. Domestic oil production increased, averaging 13.465 million bdp. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by +1 million barrels. 

The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first contraction since 2022, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Economists had forecasted a 0.4% GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025, down from the 2.4% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The World Bank published its Commodity Markets Outlook report, predicting that global trade disruptions will lead to a 12% drop in commodity prices in 2025, followed by an additional 5% decline in 2026. The report also forecasts a 17% decrease in energy prices, bringing them to their lowest point in five-years, with another 6% drop expected in 2026.

As trade talks continue between India and the US, Indian refineries have secured their largest purchase of US crude since August 2024, with around 11.2 million barrels set to arrive in June, according to Kpler data. India’s oil imports recently saw a 60% surge from February to March. 

China’s factory activity slowed in April, with Beijing citing global economic volatility as trade tensions with the U.S. intensified. Official data showed the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 the lowest since December 2023.

China's leading economic officials stated that the country could manage without American energy imports. Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that domestic production of energy, along with imports from non-US sources, would be sufficient to meet demand. Zhao noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing American oil, natural gas and coal. Last week, White House officials indicated that tariffs on China could be reduced to between 50% and 65%, though no specific timeline was provided. Despite US claims, China has repeatedly stated there are no tariff talks underway between the Trump and Xi administrations.

Reuters reported that China’s refineries processed the highest volume of oil in a year in March, yet the amount of crude being added to inventories surged to its highest level in nearly three-years. China’s surplus crude reached 1.74 million bdp in March, the largest since June 2023, based on Reuters calculations from official data. Refiners processed 14.85 million bpd in March, according to data released on April 16, a 0.4% increase compared to the same month in 2024. Crude imports totaled 12.11 million bpd in March, up 5% from the same period last year, and the highest since August 2023. China’s domestic production also saw a strong rise, up 3.5% to 4.48 million bpd, the most since at least mid-2011, according to Reuters records. Imports from Iran were estimated by commodity analysts at Kpler to be 1.71 million bpd in March, a 20% increase from February’s 1.43 million bpd, and the highest level in five-months.

Several OPEC+ members are expected to propose an increase in oil production for June, according to sources familiar with the matter. The group of eight OPEC+ countries is scheduled to meet on May 5 to finalize their output plan for June. These eight OPEC+ members previously agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. 

The April 25th Baker Hughes Rig Count showed US oil rigs increased by 2, to a total of 484 oil rigs, 28 rigs lower than this time last year.

The Commitment of Traders Report (COT - Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/22/25 showed Commercials with a net short position of -206,317 (a increase in short positions by 17,543 from the previous week) and Non-Commercials who are net long +198,969 (a increase in long positions by 22,767 from the previous week)

Price Thoughts -  Crude has been heavily influenced by the broader US stock market movement and tariff headlines over the past month, and in turn the global recession fears, which in my opinion is here to stay until some stability becomes priced in. Oil prices have also come under pressure from the OPEC rumor that members will propose further reducing their output cuts in June, and possible sanctions on Iran coming offline in the near-term in pursuit of a US-Iran nuclear deal. Crude futures may continue to trade in their near-term range of $59-$63 for WTI (which we broke through today to the downside) and $61-$67 for Brent (which was able to just stay above the $61.00 mark) until positive headlines generate, as the tighter supply/demand situation has taken a backseat to the macroeconomic picture. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly US EIA reports to a lesser degree. 

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now

You can reach me at - [email protected]

Follow Walsh Trading on X - @Walsh_trading

Jim Rinaudo

312-957-4731

Walsh Trading

311 S Wacker Suite 540

Chicago, IL 60606

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now