Walsh Pure Techicals - Pure Hedge Division

Corn, wheat & soybeans by Jim Barber via Shutterstock

Jon Wiedeman                                                                                 7/10/2025

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Daily ZSX5: 

November beans rallied to end the day in the green but was also very close to taking out the $10 psychological level with the low of the trading session at 1002 ¼.  We also have a report tomorrow (supply and demand) at 11 am central time. If beans can take out $10 the next level, I am looking at is the 971 ¼ which was the April 9th low. Taking a look at the moving averages which are all turning down on the daily charts we have the 100 day moving average at (1029 ¼) 200 day (1032) 50 day (1035 ¼) 21 day (1035 ½) and lastly the 14 day at (1029) (see chart below). 

 

Weekly ZSX5:

November beans took out last month’s low of 1013 ¼ and is eyeing the $10 psychological level.  In my opinion if we do get below the $10 level the next target would be the April low of 971 ¼. The weekly moving averages are sitting at (1035 ¾) for the 14 day, the 21 day (1031) and 50 day (1034 ¼) and lastly the 100 day at (1106 ½) (see chart below).  If we do see a rally keep an eye on closing the gap up at 1044 ¼.

Fundamentals: 

Soybeans saw some short covering during the afternoon session to close the day higher.  The weather is still forecasted for “ideal” weather, and nothing is new on any deals with China. Tomorrow’s USDA Supply and Demand report doesn’t seem that it will have any great shakes to the markets, but you never know, and we will get those updated numbers at 11am central time. Exports this morning came in line with estimates and “unknown” being the largest purchaser of soybeans. We will continue to keep an eye on the tariff letters that continue to go out to countries that haven’t resolved any trade deals. Short covering going into the report isn’t out of the question especially with a record managed money short in meal.

Trade Ideas: 

Look for selling opportunities and watch the 1040-1044 area in Nov beans.

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn had a quiet trade going into the report tomorrow. Weather is expected to be again “ideal” for pollination, and we could see some short covering going into the report. We have a gap on the daily charts of 432 ¾ which is something to watch and 411 ¼ was yesterday’s low.  As far as the moving averages for Dec corn we have the 14 day at (425 ½) the 21 day at (433 ¼) 50 day (438) 100 day (447) and lastly the 200 day moving average at (447). (See chart below).

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts of Dec corn we have broken last month’s low of 416½, and we have resistance at 432 ¾ (closing the daily gap).  As far as the moving averages look like on the weekly charts the 14 day is at (443 ¾) the 21 day (447) the 50 day (446 ¼) and lastly the 100 day moving average at (467 ¼) (See chart below). 

Fundamentals: 

Corn had a quiet day trading both sides of unchanged with report day tomorrow.  Exports for corn this morning were pretty solid and above the average trade estimates.  The supply and demand report is not supposed to have a large effect on the corn market, but again you never know.  Iowa crop conditions are currently the highest they have been since the early 1990’s. Weather continues to look favorable for pollination which also isn’t helping corn prices but can’t rule out seeing some short covering going in the report. 

Trade Ideas:

Dec corn at 432 ¾ closes the gap on the daily charts. If looking for some upside you can buy a Dec 430-480 call spread for 10 cents that expires November 21st. 

Daily ZWU5:

September wheat led the grain complex higher today going into the report tomorrow just short of closing its gap in Sep at 556 ¼. Support in Sep wheat is at 534 ¾ which was last week’s low. Looking at the daily moving averages on the wheat charts we have the 14 day at (552) and 21 day (554) and lastly the 50 day at (551). Above that we can look to test the gap at 556 ¼. (see chart below).

Weekly ZWU5:

Looking longer term at the weekly charts in September wheat we have support at last weeks low at 534 ¾. As far as resistance goes on the weekly charts, we have resistance at the 14 day moving average (558 ½) the 21 day at (567 ¼) and last week’s high of 568 ¾ (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Wheat is seeing some short covering going into the report tomorrow with falling just short of closing the gap at 556 ¼. If we can trade above the gap, we could see a test of the 100 day moving average at 567 ½ on the daily charts in my opinion.  For support in Sep wheat, we have 534 ¾ which is last week’s low. 

Trade Ideas:

Buying the Sep 570-620 call spread for 10 cents of risk.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

[email protected]

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