Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                          7/17/2025 

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Daily ZSX5: 

November soybeans closed the day higher led by the impressive rally of soybean oil.  Extended forecasts of hotter and drier weather are also contributing to the bean rally as well.  Looking at support in the November bean market we have the weekly low at 998 ¼ which was made on Sunday night.  We are also bumping up against some resistance with the daily moving averages coming in at the 100 day (1027 ¼) 200 day (1030) 50 day (1034 ¼) 21 day (1029 ¼) and lastly the 14 day at (1021 ¼) which is starting to turn up on this week’s rally (see chart below). There is also a gap at 1044 above the market to keep an eye on.

Weekly ZSX5:

November beans were able to take out last week's low of 1002 ¼ Sunday night and the psychological $10 but have recovered from those levels.  I am still looking at the April low of 971 ¼ of importance as well as last week’s high of 1039 ½ and the 1044 gap we have on the daily charts. The weekly moving averages are sitting at (1035 ¾) for the 14 day, the 21 day (1029 ½) and 50 day (1033 ½) and lastly the 100 day at (1104 ½) (see chart below).

Fundamentals: 

Soybeans have been on a solid rally from the Sunday night lows with the extended weather pattern moving to hotter and drier in most of the Midwest. Export sales were in line with the average estimates across the bean complex this morning. All eyes will be on next weeks hotter weather and also if we get any fresh news coming from China and trade deals being signed before the Aug 1^st deadline.  

Trade Ideas: 

Buying the September 290.0 meal calls for 1.5, these expire Aug 22. I am also keeping an eye on the 1040-1044 levels in November beans. 

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn closed lower this afternoon after not being able to take out yesterday’s high at 4.25 ¾ making a double top on the daily charts.  We do have a gap to fill at 4.32 ¾ in the December contract as well as having moving average resistance. As far as the moving averages for Dec corn we have the 14 day at (421 ¾) the 21 day at (425 ½) 50 day (435 ¼) 100 day (444 ¼) and lastly the 200 day moving average at (446 ¼). (See chart below).

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the longer-term weekly charts of Dec corn we have broken last week’s low of 416½ and made contract lows of 407 ½ which I am using as support for now. Last week’s high was 429 ¾ so getting above that we could close the gap on the daily charts (432 ¾) in my opinion.  As far as the moving averages look like on the weekly charts the 14 day is at (440 ½) the 21 day (444 ¼) the 50 day (445 ½) and lastly the 100 day moving average at (466 ½) (See chart below). 

Fundamentals: 

December corn has had a decent rally off the Sunday night lows of 407 ½, mostly due to the extended weather forecast for a warmer and drier forecast as previous weather models have reported.  Private analysts continue to up Brazil’s corn production which is pegged at just over 131 million tonnes.  Export sales this morning was disappointing for corn and below the average trade estimate. The trade will continue to monitor any changes in the forecast over the next few weeks. 

Trade Ideas:

I still like buying the Dec 430-480 call spread for 10 cents that expires November 21^st. 

Daily ZWU5:

September wheat closed lower this afternoon making new lows on the week and also taking out last month's low of 534 ¾. Looking at the daily moving averages on the September wheat chart we have the 14 day at (546) the 21 day at (551 ¾) the 50 day (550 ¼) and lastly the 100 day at (562 ¾). We have support at 534 ¾ which is the June 30^th low. (see chart below).

Weekly ZWU5:

As far as resistance goes on the weekly charts for September wheat we have last week’s high at 557 ½ and the weekly moving averages are coming in at (554 ¼) for the 14 day, the 21 day at (562 ¼) the 50 day (587 ¾) and lastly the 100 day at (624 ¾) (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Wheat is definitely seeing some harvest pressure coming into the market and looking for some fresh news to break out of its current trading range.  Exports this morning came in line for the average trade estimates.  Analysts are also raising Russia production estimates but also lowering Argentina’s.

Trade Ideas:

Buying the Sep 550-580 call spread for 6 ½ cents of risk that expire September 22.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

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